Hello all,
I'm starting this new topic hoping to get a better understanding
(and possibly improving) of the marketing possibilities for Hauptwerk
samplesets.
From a multitude of forum posts a regret emerges, that most virtual organ
sample sets are offered at exceedingly high prices. Of course, what is
"exceedingly high" for one customer will not be for others, otherwise no
sampleset would be sold, which fortunately for our producers is not the
case. Moreover, "exceedingly high" is not referred to the quality of the
samplesets themselves, often very high, but simply to the available
budget of customers (and their families...). Like all other forum
members, I am also fully aware that producing a sampleset is a very costly and
time-consuming task, and I am not saying that its producer does not deserve
the income that he expects when deciding its price.
All this said, I still imagine that there is room for improvement. No
one should lose: Producers should obtain the same or greater income per
sampleset, and more HW users could buy more samplesets.
I reason as follows (please correct me if I am wrong):
Practically all the cost of producing a sampleset lies in recording and
processing, and is independent of the total number of copies sold in the end.
The income (let's call it I) for a producer of a sampleset, instead,
does depend on the number of copies sold (N), and the price per copy
(P), as I = N x P. The income remains constant if the sampleset is sold
at a price P/2, but in 2*N copies (and twice as many people will enjoy it!).
Now, let us consider the price of a particular sampleset P as the
independent variable, while N (the number of users who will buy that
sampleset at a price <=P) will change as a function of P: N = N(P).
Thus, by selling the set at a price P the producer will obtain a total income
I(P) = N(P) x P. This function has at least one maximum for a finite
value of P: it is zero for P=0, it is definitely zero also
for very large P (the customer buys the real thing otherwise...), but
is not zero at intermediate values of P (samplesets are indeed sold).
The maximum value of I(P) represents the largest income a producer can
obtain (over a given time period) from selling a set, and knowing at
which price P_max does it occur should be appealing for him!
What I'm not at all sure is how well the different sampleset producers
estimate the price P_max which would give them the largest income.
Rather, I suspect that with the current sampleset prices P, only the
upper tail of the N(P) distribution (i.e. a minor fraction of potential
buyers) can afford a typical set, a non-ideal situation for both sellers
and buyers.
I am aware, of course, of the various promotions that each
producer makes (holiday sales, introductory discounts, stepwise price
decrements, try-before-buy...), but these discounts (of order of 15%)
seem not enough to boost the number of samplesets sells.
Has anybody seriously estimated if a much more substantial cut to prices
(e.g. one-third to one-fifth of current ones) will enlarge the number
of buyers by an even greater factor, with better satisfaction for all
parties?
I imagine that, as of now, a producer decides to set the price of a new
set by guessing the minimum number of probable sells, and dividing
the total income he expects/feels appropriate by this number.
If this number is underestimated (and more users end up buying the set),
the producer may have a larger-than-anticipated return; but chances are
that this number be overestimated... This is probably a too-conservative
approach, rather than an expansive one, of reaching as large as possible
number of buyers, and also getting larger incomes.
Remember, HW forum members are today 1000+...
Of course, doing so "blindly" would involve a certain amount of risk for a
producer, which he might not be willing to incur into, of selling still
few copies at a little price, and not even recovering the expenses. So,
for my proposed way to be viable for producers, some reliable estimates
of the selling potential of a given sampleset should be available prior
to setting prices and actually selling it.
I think that this forum is the ideal place to collect (perhaps
anonymously) expressions of interest towards sampleset, in a more
quantitative way than the usual "wow, I look forward towards this set's
release!" (maybe followed by giving up once the price is found to be too
high...). I just noticed that polls are apparently not allowed here (or
I was unable to find out how to start one). However, I think that a poll among
HW forum users (or some equivalent means) might be a good starting point:
given a sampleset (after all demos are there, etc.) all interested
users should vote for the maximum price P they are DEFINITELY willing to
pay for it. Of course, these must be expression of REAL interest in
buying that set within a short-term period (e.g. one year), not generic
intentions. Also, unrealistically low offers must be avoided, as HW users are not millions...
If these conditions are not met, producers could not rely on these data
and the system fails (i.e. prices remain high as ever).
Maybe non-anonymous votes might be more appropriate to commit people...
By whatever means, a producer should be able in the end to known the
distribution N(P) without guesses, thus having a solid estimate of his maximum
income, and of a price affordable by the largest number of users. I
suspect that if this exercise is made, very many HW users will be actually
buying a lot of sets at strongly reduced prices, such as 100-200 Eur/set
while it is now 300-700 Eur/set.
Will the sampleset producers (and forum administrators) accept to
make this statistical experiment? I am not trying to violate secrets
(I remember you are not willing to unveil sales numbers...), but only
to improve the satisfaction level of most people here, and at the same
time keeping producers' incomes constant or increasing. Would you be
happy if you produce a "perfect" set, but almost nobody will buy and
enjoy it since it is too expensive?
Do other HW users agree with this idea? Is it totally bad (I known more
statistics than economy...)? Are there better ones?
Sorry for the long post, anyway!
Regards,
Francesco

